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Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

Wed 06 Jan 2027, 20:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 30.2%

Draw: 27.8%

Chelsea win: 42.1%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.93

More corners: Chelsea (36.5% home / 63.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 68.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Chelsea Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 30%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.